Towards single embryo transfer? Modelling clinical outcomes of potential treatment choices using multiple data sources: predictive models and patient perspectives.

BACKGROUND In vitro fertilisation (IVF) treatments involve an egg retrieval process, fertilisation and culture of the resultant embryos in the laboratory, and the transfer of embryos back to the mother over one or more transfer cycles. The first transfer is usually of fresh embryos and the remainder may be cryopreserved for future frozen cycles. Most commonly in UK practice two embryos are transferred (double embryo transfer, DET). IVF techniques have led to an increase in the number of multiple births, carrying an increased risk of maternal and infant morbidity. The UK Human Fertilisation and Embryology Authority (HFEA) has adopted a multiple birth minimisation strategy. One way of achieving this would be by increased use of single embryo transfer (SET). OBJECTIVES To collate cohort data from treatment centres and the HFEA; to develop predictive models for live birth and twinning probabilities from fresh and frozen embryo transfers and predict outcomes from treatment scenarios; to understand patients' perspectives and use the modelling results to investigate the acceptability of twin reduction policies. METHODS A multidisciplinary approach was adopted, combining statistical modelling with qualitative exploration of patients' perspectives: interviews were conducted with 27 couples at various stages of IVF treatment at both UK NHS and private clinics; datasets were collated of over 90,000 patients from the HFEA registry and nearly 9000 patients from five clinics, both over the period 2000-5; models were developed to determine live birth and twin outcomes and predict the outcomes of policies for selecting patients for SET or DET in the fresh cycle following egg retrieval and fertilisation, and the predictions were used in simulations of treatments; two focus groups were convened, one NHS and one web based on a patient organisation's website, to present the results of the statistical analyses and explore potential treatment policies. RESULTS The statistical analysis revealed no characteristics that specifically predicted multiple birth outcomes beyond those that predicted treatment success. In the fresh transfer following egg retrieval, SET would lead to a reduction of approximately one-third in the live birth probability compared with DET, a result consistent with the limited data from clinical trials. From the population or clinic perspective, selection of patients based on prognostic indicators might mitigate about half of the loss in live births associated with SET in the initial fresh transfer while achieving a twin rate of 10% or less. Data-based simulations suggested that, if all good-quality embryos are replaced over multiple frozen embryo transfers, repeated SET has the potential to produce more live birth events than repeated DET. However, this would depend on optimising cryopreservation procedures. Universal SET could both reduce the number of twin births and lead to more couples having a child, but at an average cost of one more embryo transfer procedure per egg retrieval. The interview and focus group data suggest that, despite the potential to maintain overall success rates, patients would prefer DET: the potential for twins was seen as positive, while additional transfer procedures can be emotionally, physically and financially draining. CONCLUSIONS For any one transfer, SET has about a one-third loss of success rate relative to DET. This can be only partially mitigated by patient and treatment cycle selection, which may be criticised as unfair as all patients receiving SET will have a lower chance of success than they would with DET. However, considering complete cycles (fresh plus frozen transfers), it is possible for repeat SET to produce more live births than repeat DET. Such a strategy would require support from funders and acceptance by patients of both cryopreservation and the burden of additional transfer cycles. Future work should include development of improved clinical and regulatory database systems, surveys to quantify the extent of patients' beliefs and experiences and develop approaches to meet their information needs, and, ideally, randomised controlled trials comparing policies of repeated SET with repeated DET.